Finally.....the First Freeze in Parts of Western Washington
Updated: 2024-11-30 00:46:00
: . Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 29, 2024 Finally . the First Freeze in Parts of Western Washington It is the end of November , and until a few days ago , large areas in western Washington had not yet to experience temperatures of 32F or below . nbsp But that situation is now over . frost has returned to Seattle , Bellingham , and some other locations near Puget Sound . nbsp It is interesting to plot the average day of first freeze over the region NOAA map , below Over the higher elevations east of the Cascades , the first freeze generally occurs in September . nbsp October brings freezing conditions to the lower elevations in eastern Washington and lower elevations away from the water over
: : Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 26, 2024 A Pleasant No-Drama Thanksgiving Weekend : But A Big Surprise After a stormy previous week , we can look forward to a relatively dry and temperate Thanksgiving holiday , without the drama of significant storms . nbsp Of interest , it will be MUCH warmer in western Washington than in the Columbia Basin , which has moved into the typical mid-winter cloudy cool . pattern To illustrate , the weather.com forecast for Seattle predicts consistent temperatures , with highs in the mid to upper forties , no frost , and minimal chances of precipitation . nbsp Lots of opportunities to burn off some of the excessive calories from too much . eating But consider the
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 24, 2024 The Real Story Behind Tuesday's Windstorm and Massive Power Outage If you read media reports , such as in the Seattle Times , one is told that the localized winds on Tuesday evening were the result of an unusually deep bomb cyclone Some of the more irresponsible outlets stated that this event was the result of climate . change As described here , the truth is far more complex and nuanced . nbsp Reality Check A major issue is that the intense cyclone was well offshore , with only modest local impacts from the storm's strong . winds Consider the highly accurate regional forecast of sea level pressure and near-surface winds color shading at 7PM , near the
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 22, 2024 Are Eastern Pacific Cyclones Become More Frequent or Stronger During the past three days , I have received several calls from media folks asking the same question : nbsp Are storms like this week's bomb cyclone becoming stronger or more frequent due to global warming If not , will global warming cause such increases in the future The answer to these questions is quite clear : nbsp . NO There is convincing scientific evidence that our region has not seen an increase in such storms and that a warming planet will not bring more meteorological bombs into our . region First Some Terminology A midlatitude or extratropical cyclone is a low-pressure center with
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 21, 2024 Tomorrow's Windstorm in Four Acts Each atmospheric play is different and according to high-resolution forecast models , I can describe the four acts that will unfold . tomorrow The main protagonist of this drama is strong , but small , low pressure center that will move northward up our coast . nbsp Note to local media : nbsp not a bomb cyclone . Below is a view of the low at 4 PM Friday the lines are isobars of sea level pressure , the color shading shows low-level temperature . Nice looking low , with a central pressure of 981 . hPa Act 1 : nbsp 1 AM Friday Morning The forecast maps , with sea level pressure and near-surface winds shading are shown .
: . Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 20, 2024 A Near Perfect Forecast of Yesterday's Event . The Next Windstorm Comes into View The next time someone makes a weatherperson joke , remember the nearly perfect forecast for yesterday's wind event over . Washington No longer appropriate For days , the models correctly predicted the rapid development of the cyclone offshore and the high pressure inland . The combination resulted in strong easterly winds that descended the western slopes of the Washington . Cascades You want to see how perfect the forecasts were Here is the wind speed forecasts provided to Seattle City Light from the UW's WindWatch website , which uses the best of the regional weather
: . Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 19, 2024 The Storm Reveals Itself . The Eastside Wind Threat The latest satellite image shows the rapid development of the offshore . storm The visible satellite image around 9 AM was stunning , with low-level clouds swirling around the low center the orange arrow points to the low center . Stunning Here is the blow-up of the clouds around the low center . nbsp The circulation is . obvious Strong , rapidly developing storms not only have rising motion that produces clouds , but intense sinking motion that produces a slot dry air coming in from the southeast . nbsp We can view the dry slot using satellite images that reveal water vapor content in the upper and
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 18, 2024 The Deepest Low Pressure Center in Northwest History Damaging Winds West of the Cascades We may break a significant record tomorrow , with the rapid development of the deepest low-pressure center lowest sea level pressure on record for the coastal waters of the Pacific . Northwest For the period of the historical record , the lowest reliable central pressure for any Pacific low-pressure area off the West Coast occurred on October 24, 2021. I even did several blogs about the event at that time . nbsp As shown in the figure below , at its most intense that storm had a central pressure of 943 hPa . nbsp The latest model run of the U.S . GFS model predicts
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 17, 2024 Extreme Offshore Storm Could Produce Damaging Winds over the Western Cascade Foothills The latest model forecasts are consistent : nbsp an unusually powerful storm with extreme low pressure will develop rapidly offshore on Monday and . Tuesday But there is something else not yet discussed : nbsp this extreme offshore feature may cause a downslope windstorm on the western slopes of the . Cascades One that could easily cause extensive power . failures The latest sea level pressure forecast for Tuesday is scary , with an intense 952 hPa low center west of the Washington coast . nbsp The strongest storm ever to hit the Northwest during the past century ,
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 16, 2024 A Pacific Hurricane Off the Northwest Coast on Tuesday An extraordinary storm will develop a few hundred miles off our coast on Tuesday , a storm every bit as strong as a Category 1 hurricane . nbsp But we can't call it a hurricane because of its northern origins and energy source the energy comes from horizontal temperature differences , not warm water A storm with gusts to 80-90 mph , deep low pressure , and huge waves . nbsp Northwest Coast will get a substantial taste of . it Native Americans were quite familiar with such events and they had some colorful stories of their origins : nbsp suggesting they were the result of a giant , thunderbird which
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 14, 2024 Downslope Windstorm and Extreme Precipitation Contrasts Across the Olympics The Olympic Mountains are a meteorological laboratory par excellence . nbsp As shown below , the Olympics are nearly ideal as a meteorological research zone : nbsp an isolated , near-circular barrier approached by uninterrupted flow from off the Pacific . nbsp Plus , lots of observations around and within the barrier . nbsp It is a topographic island of extremes , with the wettest locations in the lower-48 states only miles away areas in which aridity and cacti . flourish Consider this week . nbsp Strong moist flow approached the barrier from the south , producing a stunning
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 12, 2024 Potential for King Tide Flooding this Week King Tides occur when the Earth , Sun , and Moon are aligned and can be particularly high during the winter months when the Earth is closest to the Sun . Also called spring tides , King Tides can result in localized coastal . flooding Since water levels rise as atmospheric pressure falls , something called the reverse barometer effect King Tides can be particularly problematic if a low-pressure system is overhead . nbsp So what is going to happen this week Let's start with the predicted tide levels based on astronomical conditions , with no consideration of atmospheric pressure . nbsp NOAA's Tides and Currents
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 08, 2024 The Upcoming Deluge We are about to enter a very wet period , with the potential for bankfull rivers and even some localized . flooding Let me start by showing you the total precipitation accumulation forecast over the next ten days over the region from the European Center model , below Wow . nbsp Over ten inches in some locations in the Olympics and coastal mountains and 5-10 inches in the Cacades . nbsp Even significant precipitation east of the Cascade . crest The UW model for the same period provides similar large totals , with over ten inches in the Cascades and Olympics and 3-5 inches over the lowlands of Puget . Sound Temperatures will be cold
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 06, 2024 Update on Reservoir Levels As we start the winter wet season , it is a good idea to check the reservoir levels in the western U.S . nbsp How is our water supply doing before the big precipitation events In California , which has enormous water needs for a huge population and massive agriculture , the reservoirs are now in good shape , with water levels generally at or above normal . The substantial precipitation and great snowpack of last winter deserve the . credit What about here in Seattle The statistics on November 4 indicate near-normal water storage and typical water consumption . nbsp Recent rains have helped a lot . nbsp Seattle has no water .
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 05, 2024 Will Weather Influence a Very Close National Election There is a large literature on how adverse weather can suppress voter turnout and make a difference in close elections . nbsp This is certainly a close presidential election . nbsp Although about half the U.S . electorate has already voted , could the weather today be a factor So let's look at the latest weather observations and find out The latest national radar map , which shows areas of precipitation , nbsp indicates mainly dry conditions over many of the critical states Pennsylvania , North Carolina , Georgia , Arizona , and Nevada Light rain over northern Michigan and parts of . Wisconsin The
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 04, 2024 There WILL be Downhill Skiing by Thanksgiving I may be reticent about publicly forecasting the outcome of the presidential race tomorrow , but I am increasingly confident about another issue of interest , skiing during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend at the higher elevation . runs The last few model forecasts give me some confidence that at least Whistler , Baker , and Crystal will be able to start their . season Let's start with Whistler Blackcomb . nbsp During the past week , they have gotten several inches with a current base of around 25 cm roughly 9 inches The cam at the mountain lodge shows the snow cover and the fact they have even started to
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events November 02, 2024 Snowy Start for the Northwest's Winter Season A substantially above-average amount of snow has fallen in the Northwest mountains this autumn : nbsp enough to warm the cold hearts of Northwest . skiers Let me begin by showing you the snow-laden summit of Crystal Mountain late Saturday afternoon see below A very wintry scene The lower-elevation Crystal Mountain Snow Stake confirms the white . bounty How much above normal is the current snowfall Please sit down before reading further below In Washington State , the snowpack ranges from 188 of normal to 1775 of . normal Not impressed yet Northeast Oregon is over TWO THOUSAND PERCENT of . normal Call the