The Origin of The Los Angeles Wildfires
Updated: 2025-01-20 00:11:00
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 19, 2025 The Origin of The Los Angeles Wildfires My group and scientists from the University of Albany are now studying the meteorology of the LA wildfires earlier this month and have significant early results . nbsp At the American Meteorological Society meeting last week , I attended many wildfire meteorology sessions and talked to several colleagues who have actively studied such events . The LA fires were a topic of considerable . discussion We have a good idea of what happened : nbsp an extreme unusual Santa Ana event associated with severe downslope winds . nbsp In this blog , I will show you some early simulations and explain why this event occurred . nbsp
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 16, 2025 The Northwest Sacrifices its Precipitation So New Orleans Can Experience Snow This week I have been in New Orleans , attending the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society . nbsp I spent a lot of time in the sessions dealing with the meteorology of western wildfires--will share some of the interesting findings in future blogs . nbsp I even gave a talk on western Washington Oregon . wildfires We are now experiencing and will continue to experience an unusually dry period on the West Coast , and that will be associated with cold and snow over the eastern U.S . nbsp Snowflakes my fall on the Big . Easy The reason A strong and persistent ridge
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 14, 2025 Why the LA Wildfires Have Little to With Drought or Climate Change Some climate activists and media outlets are claiming the drought or climate change were major contributors to the recent wildfires around Los Angeles see sample below These claims can easily be shown to be . false Drought had little impact on the LA . fires Climate Change had little impact . nbsp Let me provide the facts . below The Fuels The vegetative fuels for the fires were predominantly light fuels such as grasses and range vegetation . nbsp To illustrate , consider the area where the Palisades fire started below Most of these fuels are 1-10 hr fuels , which means they typically dry
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 12, 2025 Increasing Winds Threaten Southern California Let me say at the onset , that the threat is nothing like last week , but strong winds today and powerful winds tomorrow are a serious problem . both in dealing with current fires and for starting new . ones The National Weather Service is again putting out a strong message see below These warnings need to be taken seriously , including shutting down the power to some . areas Winds have accelerated today , with maximum gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains and 40-50 mph at lower elevations around Malibu see below The strong wind are generally from the northeast , a classic of Santa Ana . conditions Looking
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 11, 2025 Where and how did the Palisades Fire start I am going to go out on a limb here . nbsp There is strong evidence on exactly how and where the Palisade Fire started . nbsp We know that the fire started around 10:30 AM on Tuesday . nbsp The GOES visible satellite image at that time is shown below and you can see the smoke plume from a single . fire Using Google Maps we can easily identify that spot , just east of the Summit Community . nbsp Below is a close-in shot of Summit , with the red arrow indicating roughly where the fire started started based on weather satellite smoke . plume What do we find at the location where the fire started Powerlines . nbsp.png)
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 10, 2025 A Relatively Dry Week Ahead--And Hope for Some California Rain It is not unusual to have a dry period during the second or third week of January and this will be the case this . year The really wet systems tend to hit our region in mid-November , when the jet stream is directly aimed at our region see probability of 0.10 inch below at SeaTac . nbsp By mid-January , the jet stream often goes south of us , giving California much needed . rain There will be serious drying this week with periods of sun for many Northwest locations . nbsp In fact , the weather.com forecast , which is quite good in general , has low probability of rain at SeaTac for the entire
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 08, 2025 Did the LA Fire Disaster Have to Happen The weather forecasts for the Los Angeles area were nearly perfect for Tuesday and Wednesday . nbsp Very strong winds and low relative humidity were predicted by the high-resolution models such as the NWS HRRR model with forecast winds greater than 60 mph . nbsp The region was bone-dry with little rain during the past . months The NOAA's HRRR model prediction of wildfire potential on Monday indicated very high values in the Pacific Palisades region see below It is hard to imagine doing . better The National Weather Service put out an ominous forecast for the danger of wildfire . I blogged about it on Monday because
: . Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 06, 2025 The National Weather Service Warns of a Catastrophic Windstorm in Los Angeles . Massive Pre0mptive Power Outages Planned Because of my research on western U.S . wildfires , I keep close tabs on the weather in southern . California So I was more than a little interested in the extreme warnings made by the National Weather Service for densely populated portions of southern California see below They call this a LIFE THREATENING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDSTORM . nbsp An EXTREME RISK demanding immediate action . nbsp Folks are warned to stay away from . windows Specifically , tomorrow and Wednesday morning , the NWS is predicting north to northeast winds of 30-45
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 03, 2025 Coastal Ocean Update Several folks have asked me about the coastal water temperatures , including whether the recent storms have had an impact . nbsp So let's take a look If you plan to get into the water around here , you better pick up a wet suit , since sea surface temperatures SSTs are only in the upper . 40s The map of current sea surface temperatures sorry , in C shows the cold water along the Northwest Coast the dark blue color is 9-11°C , 48-53F The California coast is not particularly warm . You really need to head down to southern Mexico to get pleasantly warm ocean . temperatures What is even more interesting is whether the water temperatures
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events January 01, 2025 Was this Fall Wetter or Drier than Normal The answer : nbsp most of the region has enjoyed near-normal or above-normal . precipitation As a result , our region is going into the new year in pretty good shape regarding . water Starting with snowpack , Oregon is crazy above normal and Washington is modestly above normal overall see percentages as of today , below California is in good shape as . well Meteorologists and water resource managers pay close attention to the precipitation starting October 1, the beginning of the water year and our wet season . nbsp The figure below shows the difference from normal from October 1 through December 31. Northern
: . Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events December 29, 2024 Severe Turbulence Hit an Alaska Airlines Flight from Seattle to Phoenix . Why On Thursday , at approximately 1:35 PST , an Alaska Airlines flight ASA 700 flying at 33,000 ft between Seattle and Phoenix , hit severe turbulence near Las Vegas , dropping approximately 200 ft over a few seconds . nbsp Several flight attendants and one passenger were . injured What is the meteorological explanation and could this unpleasant event have been avoided A few details first . nbsp Below is the flight path , with the star showing the aircraft's location when severe turbulence hit . nbsp Weather radar is also shown color shading There was no precipitation in the
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events December 27, 2024 Was Yesterday's Forecast a Success Time for a little inside baseball on weather forecasting , particularly regarding yesterday's wind . event There were a few comments about the forecast not being as dramatic as predicted I will let you be the judge after we examine the model forecasts and what actually . occurred Early . uncertainty I refrained from discussing this event until the prior day Wednesday Why Because there was substantial uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of the key low center . nbsp The main tool meteorologists use to examine uncertainty is evaluating ensembles of many . forecasts To illustrate , below is the ensemble of
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog discusses current weather , weather prediction , climate issues , and current events December 25, 2024 Major Wind Threat over the South Sound and Eastern Slopes of the Cascades I have been watching the predicted development and path of a small low center and the trend of the runs has been . ominous The predicted path is nearly optimal for producing strong winds from Seattle to Olympia , with a near certainty of power outages . nbsp So if you live in this region . get ready . nbsp Quite a blow is now only 6-15 hr . away Here is the situation . nbsp By 4 AM Thursday morning , a 981 hPa low center will be positioned over the NE side of the Olympics Three hours later it will move over NW Washington , with an intense pressure gradient over southern Puget