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Outside Boston’s Faneuil Hall, where American revolutionaries first began clamoring for independence in the 1770s, the water is nowhere in sight. Tourists click photos, office workers hurry across the cobblestone paths, and everyone is perfectly dry. As I look around, I try to imagine a different Boston—a Boston of the future, a city that has to fear the ocean.
Extreme flood risk is just one of many dramatic changes that will come with a warmer planet. The average summer temperature in Boston stands to increase by as much as 14 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, bringing with it a sharp rise in the number of deadly hot spells. In the 1970s this city experienced only
one 100-degree day per year. By the 2070s, forecasts call for at least 24 such hellish days annually.
For reasons researchers are still trying to sort out, four degrees appears to be a tipping point beyond which the human risks increase dramatically. Added sea-level rise, shifts in precipitation, and jumps in local temperatures could lead to vast water and food shortages. Nearly 200 million people could be displaced, and many of our standard methods of adaptation to weather extremes—developing new crops, bolstering freshwater supplies in advance of heat waves, responding to disasters after the fact—could have little effect. “In moving from two to four degrees you really do see, in all our best estimates, a major increase in the level of action required,” says climate-adaptation expert Mark Stafford Smith, science director for Australia’s national science agency. “Suddenly, dramatic adaptation is going to be needed”...
Image: Veer